This Week's Market Turbulence: Key Insights | April 7, 2025
Welcome to this week’s episode of Optimal Insights. In this episode, our experts discuss recent market turbulence, including significant movements in equity markets, bond rates, and energy prices.
They explore the implications of new US tariffs and retaliatory measures from countries like China, discussing how these actions might affect global trade and economic stability. The episode also covers key economic indicators such the OBMMI rate and lock volumes, highlighting trends in refinancing and purchase volumes. Employment data and inflation concerns are also discussed, offering insights into their effects on the broader economy.
Tune in to gain valuable insights to help you stay ahead and maximize your profitability in the ever-evolving mortgage landscape. #OptimizeYourAdvantage #MaximizeProfitability
Hosts and Guests:
- Jim Glennon, VP of Hedging & Trading Client Services
- Jeff McCarty, Director of Hedging Product
- Alex Hebner, Hedge Account Manager
- Kevin Foley, Director of Product Management
Production Team:
- Executive Producer: Sara Holtz
- Producers: Matt Gilhooly & Hailey Boyer
Commentary included in the podcast shall not be construed as, nor is Optimal Blue providing, any legal, trading, hedging, or financial advice.
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Keywords: Real-time data insights, Capital markets commentary, Mortgage industry, Profitability, Lenders, Investors, Rate fluctuations, Mortgage landscape, Expert advice, Optimal Blue, Secondary marketing automation, Pricing accuracy, Margin protection, Risk management, Originators, Originations
Mentioned in this episode:
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Transcript
Welcome to Optimal Insights, your weekly source for real time rate data and expert capital markets commentary brought to you by Optimal Blue.
Speaker A:Let's dive in and help you maximize your profitability this week.
Speaker A:Welcome to Optimal Insights, your weekly source for timely market analysis and expert commentary from Optimal Blue.
Speaker A:I'm your host, Jim Glennon, Vice president of hedging and Trading client services at Optimal Blue.
Speaker A:Our clients and industry partners have long relied on Optimal Blue for trusted insights and commentary and these podcasts are an evolution of our commitment to keeping the industry informed.
Speaker A:Let's get into today's episode.
Speaker A:Welcome.
Speaker A:Thanks everybody for being here today.
Speaker A:In the interest of keeping you informed, we're always striving to, to bring you up to the hour events and how we should think about those, those events or those releases or these changes in the market, how we should look at them as originators and hedgers and just mortgage lenders in general.
Speaker A:So we've got a great show today.
Speaker A:We're basically going to dedicate the whole show to updating you on what happened last week in the market and then what's going on like up to the hour right now with tariffs, especially with the equities market, what that's doing to bonds, energy prices.
Speaker A:And it's been a crazy day so far already.
Speaker A:If you're following today in the news, there's already been reciprocal tariffs.
Speaker A:There's been threats know from the US of significantly increasing tariffs that were announced last week.
Speaker A:So we'll dive into that here in a minute.
Speaker A:And first a little bit of data.
Speaker A:The OBMMI broke below 6 and a half percent which is a welcome change.
Speaker A:I think we're getting closer to that, that 6% level.
Speaker A:So it certainly has caused a huge spike in volume in lock volume.
Speaker A: of normal lock volume, normal: Speaker A:So very healthy volume coming in.
Speaker A:We're seeing, you know, refi start to spike a little bit, but also some of that summer season coming purchase volume as well.
Speaker A:So we'll talk a little bit about some of the things that are influencing rates here in a moment.
Speaker A:All right, let's go check in.
Speaker A:All right, let's get right into it then.
Speaker A:We were riffing a little bit on the side.
Speaker A:We decided just to hit record and start talking about our takes on what's going on right now.
Speaker A:And, and you know, hopefully not too much changes by the time this airs later today.
Speaker B:Yeah, this is sure to be out of date by the time you listen to it.
Speaker B:Even if that's 30 minutes from now, it's probably out of date.
Speaker B:So.
Speaker A:Yes, but it will give you some things to think about and you'll see if some of our, our predictions play out here over the next few days.
Speaker A:As, as you hear this and, and yeah, I, you know, as we said earlier on, and as you're seeing on your screens right now, probably I'm wearing black in mourning for my 401k and probably many others out there.
Speaker A:Yeah, we're just seeing a slaughter as people start wrapping their brains around what the next few years or the next decade could look like if some of these, a lot of these tariffs continue or, or are sustained.
Speaker A:And I think that's, I think that's still up in the air.
Speaker A:It does feel there's a lot of negotiation going on right now.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:But given the levels that were announced by the White House last week, huge, you know, tariffs.
Speaker A:And then, you know, retaliatory tariffs against the US Are certainly keeping money or pushing money to the sidelines, whether it's out of equities or just in general looking forward out of business investment or innovation investment.
Speaker A:And that's going to drag the stock market down.
Speaker A:I mean, that's the general thesis right now.
Speaker A:I don't know, what do you all think happens over the next couple days?
Speaker A:Like, where should we be focused?
Speaker A:Is it, is it China?
Speaker A:That's the big news this morning, right?
Speaker A:If you haven't seen it already, China imposed retaliatory tariffs on the US as expected.
Speaker A:And then obviously the US did not back down.
Speaker A:We said, all right, another 50 on China, then we're going to keep grinding until you make some concessions.
Speaker A:And then meanwhile, I think it was Vietnam says zero tariffs, right?
Speaker A:They kind of rolled over and said we're good, you know, taking tariffs off the table.
Speaker A:But then I think we talked tough back at that and said that's not good enough.
Speaker A:Like 0% tariffs isn't good enough.
Speaker A:They're still, you know, part of the negotiation theory here is that a lot of these other countries are kind of skirting the rules and they have for, theoretically for years.
Speaker A:And there could be some what are perceived to be unfair trade practices going on that we're trying to put a stop to by just saying, you know, tariffs will exist until a lot of these things are addressed.
Speaker B:That is, you know, the big argument you hear from, from supporters of the tariffs is like that, you know, don't freak out too much.
Speaker B:These are Negotiating tactics.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:We're supposed to come in with a, you know, a strong stance to start to get these other countries to kind of meet us somewhere where we want to be.
Speaker B:I don't, it sounds like it's not going to be necessarily in the middle based on what we just, you know, just mentioned about Vietnam.
Speaker B:People are preaching, you know, have a little bit of patience, let this play out.
Speaker B:But there is a lot of damage being done and, you know, interesting to see how much of that damage can be undone as negotiations are had and agreements are made in the coming days, weeks, months.
Speaker C:Yeah, I think, I think that's, that's a good way to think about, at least from my perspective.
Speaker C:My hot take coming into this week is, is that tariffs as a negotiating tactic is really the only way to think about what's happening right now.
Speaker C:So there's three main arguments that I think are floating around out there.
Speaker C:There's, there's one, bring back manufacturing jobs.
Speaker C:There's two, use tariffs to reduce the deficit and pay off some of the debt.
Speaker C:And then there's three, which is, you know, it's kind of this, you know, negotiating strategy.
Speaker C:We're going to try and extract concessions when we think about bringing back manufacturing jobs.
Speaker C:I think the struggle with that that I see is there's been a spike in corporate bond yields since these tariffs were announced.
Speaker C:And you remove 5 trillion-plus in equity across the private sector and they still have the same amount of debt that they did this time last week.
Speaker C:So everyone instantly became much more levered.
Speaker C:You see that play out, you start to get closer to a credit crisis.
Speaker C:And during a credit crisis, there's no who's going to be funding these, you know, seven, eight, nine figure manufacturing facilities in the US which bank is going to go out there and do it?
Speaker C:Which company is going to go out and take on the risk?
Speaker C:You know, when they're the, the, you know, the mantra is just going to be trying to survive.
Speaker C:I think that, that to me doesn't, I don't see that playing out that way.
Speaker C:The second piece around, you know, could we use tariffs to pay off the debt or deficit?
Speaker C:Well, not if, not if we risk going into a recession.
Speaker C:Because, you know, our trade deficit right now is about a trillion dollars a year.
Speaker C:We now have an effective tariff rate of about 25%.
Speaker C:So that's about generously, let's call it $250 billion a year.
Speaker C:It's probably going to be less than that because demand's going to be tampered and this, that and the other, but let's just call it 250 billion a year.
Speaker C:Well, as soon as we have a recession, we have automatic spending kick, kick in around unemployment, Medicaid, Social Security from early retirements.
Speaker C: million: Speaker C:So I don't, I don't see, you know, using tariffs, you know, $250 billion a year risking us going into recession really paying off.
Speaker C:So, you know, I have to believe that at some point the tariffs are going to go away or they're going to be significantly cut back.
Speaker C:And whether that's all part of a, you know, negotiation strategy to try and extract better deals with, you know, individual countries, whether that's going to be worth it, that's all I'm going to withhold judgment on that for now.
Speaker C:But I have to think that that's going to be the strategy that they're going with.
Speaker A:So how much time is it going to take?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:All of these things, you know, you mentioned the cost of these factories and, and facilities that may or may not be funded affordably and then it's going to take many years for them to come online.
Speaker A:And then just the idea that we're looking to completely dismantle the world trade map and change it, which is what has to happen.
Speaker A:Even if tariffs kind of work out in a certain way, it's going to be some countries are going to get concessions, some are not.
Speaker A:The flow or the picture of the puzzle of world trade is going to be completely different when it's put back together potentially, which also takes time and is disruptive.
Speaker A:And you know, we're going to, you would think, bleed a little bit of efficiency and resources along the way.
Speaker B:So my hot take, maybe not so hot take, but my, the way I see this, this playing out is that this all ends up being deflationary by the time this is all said and done because of the reasons you just said.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So domestically produced goods, you know, the price of domestically produced goods decreases ultimately because we come become less efficient.
Speaker B:We reduce employment, we reduce investment and so we, you know, ultimately we reduce growth.
Speaker B:And you know, a year from now, 18 months from now, we're looking back, it was short term inflationary, but ultimately drives us into recession because it's deflationary.
Speaker B:And I can go into kind of some of the steps from there maybe a little bit later on about how the Fed reacts to all of this as we go.
Speaker D:Speaking of which.
Speaker A:Yeah, speaking of which.
Speaker A:That's another kind of, I don't know, a little bit weird announcement this morning, Alex.
Speaker A:There's a, there's a sudden closed door Fed meeting going on right now while we're talking.
Speaker D:Yeah, closed door Fed meeting.
Speaker D:And they're not unheard of.
Speaker D:But when we see these, these extremely volatile times in financial markets, specifically in the stock market, the banks that are, that are trading in that space and other financial institutions that begin to come under a bit of stress, the Federal Reserve would want to get out ahead of that.
Speaker D:They don't want to be caught out again.
Speaker D:Kind of like during the by comparison now small SVB crisis that we saw I believe like two years ago now, their meeting today, you know, people were, before they announced that it was going to be regarding, you know, you know, overnight lending rates and everything for banks, people were like, oh, are we going to get an emergency Federal Reserve cut?
Speaker D:That doesn't appear to be the case.
Speaker D:The Federal Reserve is just looking to prepare themselves, make sure that the liquidity is there for banks should they come under stress is in place so far.
Speaker A:Yeah, I mean the margin calls are flowing right now in the equity markets especially.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And probably a little bit in, in higher risk bonds too because of all the things we just talked about.
Speaker A:Just the forward looking economic pictures is very, it's become quite a bit more glum than it was even a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker A:So starting to, starting to feel that.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Going back to, you know, the fact that, you know, the Fed is not meeting for an emergency rate cut.
Speaker B:We already had Trump push Powell over the weekend.
Speaker B:This would be a perfect time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.
Speaker B:He is always late, but he could now change his image and quickly.
Speaker B:This goes back to the thesis that Jim, you had been pushing for the past month or two.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:This is Trump's ultimate goal is to.
Speaker A:Lower rates, lower rates by any means necessary and lower energy costs.
Speaker A:And hopefully that fights against some of the inflationary pressures that are coming from these tariffs and all this kind of rhetoric.
Speaker C:Energy seems to be listening.
Speaker C:I saw that crude oil drop below $60 a barrel.
Speaker C:The 10 year though, I think has been one of the most surprising stories coming out of this where it's been pretty flat relatively.
Speaker C:And actually up today, where I think probably a lot of folks imagining that if you get a bear market, you know, stocks down 20% or down 15% in three days or you know, whatever the numbers are, that you'd get a pretty substantial Drop in the, in the 10 year, which obviously is very important because it's tied to mortgage rates and you know, helps influence the rates that we all see and the opportunity for refi boom and whatnot.
Speaker C:But it's not moving, you know, as you might expect, I think because there's a lot of folks who, you know, they see the impact in the private sector, they see the impact to equities, but there's still a lot of uncertainty around.
Speaker C:Well, what does that mean for rates?
Speaker C:Is, will it be inflationary?
Speaker C:Will people be treating the treasury as the safe haven asset of yesteryear?
Speaker C:I think there's still a lot to be said there which is leading to kind of the non movement in rates.
Speaker D:Yeah, it hasn't so much been the usual flight to safety within the U.S.
Speaker D:i think what we've seen is a lot of people either sidelining cash or if you look at, you know, the European stock market before, before the tariff announcement, you know, there was a, there was a move away from US in general.
Speaker D:We saw a lot of, a lot of outflows into, specifically around European European spending when they, when they were realizing that they couldn't rely on the US security umbrella anymore, that they were likely going up to spend their way into, into security.
Speaker D:So we've definitely seen some outflows from, from us, from the US which has been.
Speaker D:That really grates against kind of the rule of the road for the past several decades.
Speaker D:You know, in all reality that, that the US is the outperformer in the world in regards to equities and, and yield.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's been volatile to say the least.
Speaker A:And that was, you know, those flames have been fanned a little bit here and there too.
Speaker A:By the way, if you're listening to this and you've read any news that the White House was considering a 90 day pause on tariffs, that was deemed fake news by the White House very quickly this morning, but it still leaked out into quite a few blogs this morning I think where folks penned it as reality.
Speaker C:Something that was substantiated, even had a cry on that that said, hey, this is what's happening.
Speaker C:And it turned out not to be, not to be accurate.
Speaker C:And yeah, the S and p moved like 8%.
Speaker C:It was down 5 and then up 3 and then quickly came back down once people realized what was going on.
Speaker C:And those are some big swings.
Speaker D:I'd like to see the, the raw dollar numbers on that kind of movement.
Speaker C:Yeah, right, right.
Speaker A:It's a trillion dollars one way or the other.
Speaker A:Just on, on fake news.
Speaker A:I mean, anything is possible right now.
Speaker A:That is why you're getting these big moves.
Speaker A:There's no, there's no time to even go check your sources at this point.
Speaker A:I'm sure they'll figure out where that, I don't know, tweet came from, where it originated.
Speaker A:And it'll be, you know, either, you know, some sort of joker or possibly, you know, someone on the outside trying to influence politics or, or just trying to create a little bit more chaos where we already have plenty.
Speaker A:So we'll, we'll see how that plays out.
Speaker A:Yeah, I mean, this week into next week, there's going to be, you know, presumably a lot of negotiations already happening between the White House and all of these other countries.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Some of it's being made very public and I think some of that hopefully is saber rattling a bit.
Speaker A:But also to enforce that we are not, you know, the US is not backing down on its promises to tariff all of these, these different trading partners.
Speaker A:But does anybody have a hot take on, I don't know, two weeks from now?
Speaker A:Who are we firmly agreed with, if anybody, or do we still have a rift between us and all and pretty much all of our trading partners come Easter?
Speaker D:I'll say it'll probably be Asia Pacific somewhere.
Speaker D:If I had to say somewhere, let's say Thailand or Australia.
Speaker D:I think that there is more of an impetus to negotiate with those folks just because their proximity to China.
Speaker D:We're looking to make sure we have friends in that sector of the world.
Speaker D:I wouldn't look to like Europe for, you know, the initial.
Speaker D:I mean, the Europeans have yet to respond with their own retaliatory tariffs.
Speaker D:They definitely seem to be, be split on, on a course of action given that they've been talking about how there's still non tariff barriers regarding Vietnam.
Speaker D:I think Vietnam, aside from the quote unquote, non tariff barriers, is a good candidate as well.
Speaker D:But if I had to put a name out there, I'll say, I'll say like Thailand or Australia.
Speaker C:Yeah, I feel like, feel like those are some, some good guesses.
Speaker C:Yeah.
Speaker C:Initially I might have thought like Vietnam or Cambodia or maybe India.
Speaker C:It's interesting to just think about like how that's going to happen.
Speaker C:I mean, obviously, okay, if you're framing it as a negotiation, what's, what the U.S.
Speaker C:is saying right now is we want, you know, no trade deficits and it, so how do you get that to happen?
Speaker C:While Vietnam, relatively poor country, would need to buy as much from the US as they're selling to the US So I don't, the math doesn't, doesn't really add up there about how they're going to be able to get there.
Speaker C:But again, if you think about it as a negotiation tactic, maybe you cut it by half and there's something around.
Speaker C:Okay, you're going to push it off for a few years or something.
Speaker C:Maybe it ends up that way is sort of the best that I can see it.
Speaker C:I would, I would also be kind of like Southeast Pacific area.
Speaker C:The places with the highest tariffs, you know, that we've imposed have kind of the most to lose, but also I think have limited flexibility in terms of what they can actually do without, you know, bankrupting their own country.
Speaker C:So it'll be interesting to watch.
Speaker A:Yeah, I mean that's the whole dance, right, is how much, how much of this value can we extract from these other countries and bring it back to the US without bankrupting them.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Vietnam is a good example where there, there would be a long road to go to get to some kind of, you know, some kind of homeostasis or some kind of zero level net, you know, zero imports, especially because, you know, you take it to the second order and Vietnam is one of these countries where China is operating through Vietnam and through other countries to get around some of the tariffs and to get around certain other types of rules.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So I think the US is also looking to unwind some of that and how much of that can be undone without causing irreparable damage to, to some of these economies that we're talking about.
Speaker D:Right.
Speaker D:I'm with, I'm with Kevin in that I don't think anyone's tariff rate is going to drop back to pre April levels.
Speaker D:I think one, they need to stand firm with these tariffs for, for some period of time.
Speaker D:I think, you know, the rumors this morning were like kind of what I was Talking about Believe 2, a week ago now.
Speaker D:You know, they can't peel these off too quickly.
Speaker D:I do think that they will peel them off as negotiations occur.
Speaker D:But you know, I think at least a month or so they need to go into effect just because from, from an optics perspective, you can't just keep going back and forth on it just looks, looks like there's no teeth to the, to the policy.
Speaker A:Yeah, now's the time.
Speaker A:I mean we've, we've set the table so it's how strategically we peel those tariffs off as we make deals with a lot of these other countries.
Speaker A:It's going to be very interesting how that plays out.
Speaker A:And it seems like it's going to happen relatively quickly.
Speaker A:And that's, you know, if you believe everything that the White House is saying right now in the public, I think that's their intention is to get this done fairly quickly so that maybe that mitigates some of the damage that's done.
Speaker B:Yeah, in my mind, you know, the damage is already done.
Speaker B:The cat's out of the bag.
Speaker B:You know, we'll start walking back some of these.
Speaker B:But you've destroyed business confidence domestically and globally.
Speaker B:The long term growth is already going to take a hit.
Speaker B:So, you know, long term overall growth again domestically and globally will take a big hit for four years to come.
Speaker B:I guess it'll be interesting to see if they're, you know, what benefits we do get out of it.
Speaker B:As Kevin, you know, mentioned, you know, some of the potential benefits that people are looking for.
Speaker B:The, you know, Republican administration that has implemented these tariffs, what they are trying to get out of it.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Do we see some gains to the middle class in America?
Speaker B:Do we see more industrialization in America and how long does that take to play out?
Speaker B:But I can't see a path where it is ultimately worth it in the long term where we've really just taken a hit to economic growth that we'll never get back.
Speaker C:Yeah, I think the other thing about bringing back manufacturing, which I think is a very noble thing and I think there's a lot of reasons to do that, particularly when you think about items that are critical to national security and our economic stability.
Speaker C:We don't want to be held hostage by someone who produces something that we need that's mission critical to keep the lights on, to bring back manufacturing, to bring back all manufacturing.
Speaker C:There's tens of millions.
Speaker C:I chatgpt this, by the way.
Speaker C:There are tens of millions in the tens of millions of foreign workers who produce goods for the US and so let's just split the difference.
Speaker C:Call it like whatever, 40, 50 million.
Speaker C:Where are those workers going to come from in the U.S.
Speaker C:i mean, we right now have a relatively low unemployment rate and so we don't have, we don't have that slack now.
Speaker C:Some might say, okay, well, robots, I've definitely heard that over the weekend.
Speaker C:Robots, which is, which is great, which is great.
Speaker C:But also who's going to build the robots?
Speaker C:You know, it's like we need, we're going to need a lot of robots.
Speaker C:We got it.
Speaker C:We need a lot of robot workers.
Speaker B:And we've slashed immigration.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So we're, you know, we, we don't have this.
Speaker C:I'm kind of I'm with you, Jeff.
Speaker C:I mean, like, it's.
Speaker C:I don't want to, I don't want to really, you know, jump to conclusions and, you know, like, give.
Speaker B:I'm ready.
Speaker B:Jump with me.
Speaker C:But, but, you know, I, I'm.
Speaker C:I'm.
Speaker C:The only, the only way that this makes sense to me is, Is a negotiation tactic that short term, it's like, you know, taking a Taser to the free trade global infrastructure.
Speaker C:It's like you give it a big shock and then pull it away and then everyone's gonna kind of step back and maybe reassess and, you know, maybe there, there'd be something beneficial that comes out of that.
Speaker C:But, yeah, it's, there's, there's a lot of pain.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And I, you know, I do think that the US Comes out as relative winners.
Speaker B:Just essentially as the leader of the global economy, we consistently come out as relative winners.
Speaker B:Even over the past couple of years, we saw better economic growth than the rest of the world, where China was struggling, Europe was struggling.
Speaker B:Again, I think here we come out as relative winners.
Speaker B:But it'll be interesting to see if other countries do start to look to each other and work with each other more rather than relying on America because they, you know, they don't, they essentially don't trust America anymore.
Speaker D:Yeah, you want a restructuring of the current order.
Speaker D:You don't want an order that excludes America.
Speaker D:I think, actually, Jamie Dimon, it's probably why I just said that.
Speaker D:Just, just reworded what Jamie Dimon said.
Speaker D:It's a good line this morning.
Speaker D:It's okay to be America first, but you don't want, you know, America alone.
Speaker A:Essentially, to get left behind.
Speaker A:We in that zone right now.
Speaker A:Then the kind of, the, you know, it's hard to overestimate the freakout factor right now.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:I think the, the market is a bit.
Speaker A:Market's obviously freaked out about the threats and the prospects of, of where growth goes from here.
Speaker A:But then again, you know, we just mentioned the labor market being extremely tight, and Friday's report showed that.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:We didn't talk about that yet today.
Speaker A:We had, you know, kind of a blowout number to the upside.
Speaker A:Although we got a little bit of a tick up in the unemployment rate to 4.2, still historically very low.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:We'll see what happens with inflation numbers later this week.
Speaker A:We've got cpi, ppi, see if that narrative plays out with prices going up.
Speaker A:But so far, so far, the economy on paper looks resilient to some of these, some of this drama.
Speaker D:So Far.
Speaker D:Yeah, like you said, unemployment came in at 4.2%.
Speaker D:It's been in the range of 4 to 4.2% over the past year.
Speaker D:So at the high end of the range.
Speaker D:But like you said it's, it's still in the normal range for unemployment and it's historically low.
Speaker D:Nowhere near, you know, crisis levels by any means.
Speaker D:We'll have to see how it plays out over the coming months.
Speaker D:Contractions in anywhere around the world can, can have impacts on, on US Employment as well.
Speaker D:But things seem to be stable for the moment.
Speaker D:We did get a blowout number on the, the new jobs non farming.
Speaker D:That being said both months so far this year they have on the, on the second look they've pared them back ever so slightly.
Speaker D:They're still jobs flowing to the economy.
Speaker D:But I would expect that 228,000 number to get pulled back a little bit in May and then yeah, inflation this week.
Speaker D:Inflation does definitely still on my radar.
Speaker D:I am still concerned about inflation.
Speaker D:I think if we see the tariffs remain in place it will be an inflationary factor.
Speaker D:But yeah, right now it's still targeting just around, around 3%.
Speaker D:I think CPI is like 2.8 and then PPI somewhere like 3.2 is the estimate.
Speaker D:So you know, average that out about 3%.
Speaker D:But it has been ticking up as I, as I've highlighted over the, over the past several months.
Speaker A:All right, anything else on tariffs Team beat that up pretty good.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's you know, more to come later today.
Speaker A:Probably more to come as the weeks go on.
Speaker C:Time to something to go check CNBC and see what we miss while we've been on here.
Speaker C:Yes.
Speaker A:All right, good discussion.
Speaker A:Thanks for the wisdom.
Speaker A:Thanks for the time, gentlemen.
Speaker A:Okay, as much as I hate to do it, let's close this thing out.
Speaker A:Appreciate the time and the wisdom.
Speaker A:Alex, Jeff, Kevin, we will keep an eye on the news as always.
Speaker A:We'll keep an eye on the tariff discussion and you definitely should too out there.
Speaker A:This drama will continue to weigh on equity markets and therefore on bonds even though we are seeing just rates generally sticky as we talked about today.
Speaker A:But this is definitely, you know, long term going to have some effect on what rates are doing and hopefully at least, you know, byproduct of this could be continued drop in rates and a continued increase in volume for our industry.
Speaker A:And if needed we may put out a bonus episode at some point here over the next couple weeks as things thicken.
Speaker A:So look out for that potentially midweek this week or next week if, if the market warrants it.
Speaker A:You know, it doesn't seem like things are going to get much calmer, so we may have some some good material to talk about here over the next couple weeks and months.
Speaker A:And that's it for today.
Speaker A:Join us next week for another episode of Optimal Insights, where we'll continue to provide you with the latest market analysis and insights to help you stay ahead.
Speaker A:Don't forget to follow us on LinkedIn for more updates and to access our latest video episodes.
Speaker A:You can also find each episode on all major podcast platforms.
Speaker A:Thank you for tuning in to Optimal Insights.
Speaker D:SA.
